Decision Mastery Check the Evidence

Anchor Check

Say this

What's the first number I heard — and what would I say without it?

Do this now 2 min

Identify the first number, price, or reference point you encountered in this decision. Write it down and label it "anchor." Now generate your own independent estimate from scratch. Compare.

Use when

A negotiation, salary discussion, price quote, or first opinion has set the opening frame.

Avoid when

The anchor is a verified, authoritative data point that genuinely represents fair value.


Why it works

First numbers exert gravitational pull on all subsequent estimates, even when arbitrary — generating your own figure breaks that pull.

The first number you encounter in any decision — a price, a salary, a time estimate — exerts gravitational pull on everything that follows. Your brain doesn’t evaluate from scratch; it adjusts from whatever reference point it received first, and it adjusts insufficiently. This happens even when the anchor is obviously arbitrary. The effect is strongest when the anchor seems reasonable, because you don’t think to question it. Building your own independent estimate before comparing breaks the pull. Name the anchor, then ignore it while you calculate.


Go deeper · 8 min read
Anchoring Bias: Why the First Number You Hear Distorts Every Number After It
You think you adjust away from a number you know is arbitrary. You do, but you stop too early, because the anchor decides where you go looking for your answer in the first place.
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